Strategies for Treating Latent Multiple-Drug Resistant Tuberculosis: A Decision Analysis

BACKGROUND The optimal treatment for latent multiple-drug resistant tuberculosis infection remains unclear. In anticipation of future clinical trials, we modeled the expected performance of six potential regimens for treatment of latent multiple-drug resistant tuberculosis. METHODS A computerized Markov model to analyze the total cost of treatment for six different regimens: Pyrazinamide/ethambutol, moxifloxacin monotherapy, moxifloxacin/pyrazinamide, moxifloxacin/ethambutol, moxifloxacin/ethionamide, and moxifloxacin/PA-824. Efficacy estimates were extrapolated from mouse models and examined over a wide range of assumptions. RESULTS In the base-case, moxifloxacin monotherapy was the lowest cost strategy, but moxifloxacin/ethambutol was cost-effective at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $21,252 per quality-adjusted life-year. Both pyrazinamide-containing regimens were dominated due to their toxicity. A hypothetical regimen of low toxicity and even modest efficacy was cost-effective compared to "no treatment." CONCLUSION In our model, moxifloxacin/ethambutol was the preferred treatment strategy under a wide range of assumptions; pyrazinamide-containing regimens fared poorly because of high rates of toxicity. Although more data are needed on efficacy of treatments for latent MDR-TB infection, data on toxicity and treatment discontinuation, which are easier to obtain, could have a substantial impact on public health practice.